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April 18th, 2008

The Collapse of America’s Service Economy


Recent high profile bankruptcies of mainstay American retailers, such as The Sharper Image and Linens ‘n Things, as well as the proposed mergers between Blockbuster/Circuit City and Delta/Northwest, and the admissions from the nation’s leading student lenders that their business models are no longer viable, mark the beginning of a long overdue overhaul […]

April 18th, 2008

Real US Interest Rates Hit Minus 12.55% As Inflation Explodes!


Mike Larson writes: If you’ve been following the news, you know the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates. The benchmark federal funds rate was 5.25% last summer. It’s all the way down to 2.25% now, and chances are the Fed will cut that rate again when it concludes its next policy meeting on April […]

April 18th, 2008

LIBOR Sends Warning Signal to the Global Financial Markets


The news that the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) system of setting interest rates is running into trouble was surprising at first glance.  It seems some banks are giving phony LIBOR quotations that don’t reflect the true rates at which they accept deposits. In the perfect financial system, beloved of regulators and academics, this kind […]

April 17th, 2008

LIBOR Rates Unreliable and Irrelevant to Derivatives Pricing


In the latest Office of the Comptroller of the Currency – Quarterly Derivatives Report [Q4/07], we learn that outstanding notionals for reporting banks declined by 8 Trillion. Furthermore, we are told that the overall decline was “driven by a 9.2 Trillion reduction in interest rate contracts – mostly swaps with maturities of less than one […]

April 16th, 2008

US Actual Inflation Trend is Deflationary


Inflationists have been crying wolf for the past three plus years despite the fact that the annualized headline CPI, including food and energy, and not seasonally adjusted, for 12M, 6M, and 3M has fluctuated around the 20-year trend of 3%+- (yes, the annualized inflation in the US for the past 20 years is 3.08%). As […]

April 16th, 2008

It is 1937 for the US Federal Reserve


This Letter is a follow on from my article The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve and US Govt are known   in which, using the work of GB Eggertsson, we showed that the Fed/US Govt is following a plan to stimulate the economy and avoid a deflationary episode. Essentially the plan is to avoid the mistakes […]

April 16th, 2008

Protect Your Wealth from Wall Street Liars


Few seem to remember that Wall Street is not a non-profit community driven by altruism or any sense of service. They would gladly cheat you out of your entire life savings if their actions were legal, or at least not prosecuted. In the last two to three years, the lies, deception, misdirection, false […]

April 16th, 2008

Forget the Headlines, Listen to the Bond Market!


Let’s turn our attention to something that isn’t often discussed, namely bonds.
I know what some of you are saying already: “But bonds are boring!” Yes, they may well be boring in most instances. But this isn’t one of those times. Actually, the message of the bond market is one of the more exciting and optimistic […]

April 15th, 2008

Stein’s Law- Mean Reversion Results in US Wealth Contraction


This week we look at a remarkable and important essay by my friend Dr. Woody Brock who is one of my favorite “Outside the Box thinking” economists. I seriously look forward to Woody’s quarterly insights and devour them as soon as the come in.
I especially urge you to read and re-read the first few paragraphs, […]

April 15th, 2008

US Fed Responsible for the Credit Crisis


By: Dr_Ron_Paul

There has been a lot of talk in the news recently about the Federal Reserve and the actions it has taken over the past few months. Many media pundits have been bending over backwards to praise the Fed for supposedly restoring stability to the market. This interpretation of the Fed’s actions couldn’t […]

April 14th, 2008

Greenspan- He Did It His Way (Unfortunately)


Greenspan did another media tour last week, this time defending his legacy in the Financial Times , Wall Street Journal , and on CNBC Television .  Unfortunately the story from Greenspan was much the same: he reiterated that the financial markets are best left to self-regulate, and that investors around the world (not the Fed) […]

April 14th, 2008

The Problems Spread as US Recession Takes Hold


Last week, General Electric one of the finest companies in the world and an American icon, announced a major fall in earnings. Amazingly, the bad news surprised Wall Street, and GE shares fell 13 percent in a single day. Some surprise!
GE is one of the best-diversified and well managed companies on earth, and […]

April 14th, 2008

Central Banks’ in Tatters- Facts are Stubborn Things Part II


The ALADDIN’S lamp of Central Banking coming FULL Circle - If one is inclined toward general agreement with the notion that the pinnacle of power in the world is the power to create money, - then one must hastily conclude that; the government-aligned private organizations of central banking cartels, whom fund all of the worlds […]

April 8th, 2008

Japans Deflation Lesson: US Interest Rates Heading for 0%


The prospect of a US Fed 0% rate becoming a reality has been on my mind since August when the subprime made news hit. In my view, the entire mortgage bond structure would suffer massive losses in a successive of waves, beginning with subprimes, extending to primes, and concluding with commercials. How could housing distress […]

April 8th, 2008

Did Greenspan Have to Cut US Interest Rate so Much?


In today’s Financial Times , Greenspan is generously given yet another chance to defend his legacy. Greenspan’s argument that it was not his doing that set off the U.S. housing bubble reminds me of my two perfect children. When they appeared to err, it was never their fault. Greenspan’s main defense lies on […]

April 7th, 2008

US Housing Crash and the American Dream


Home ownership has long been considered “The AMERICAN DREAM” and with the recent paradigms of the “WEALTH AFFECT” and the “OWNERSHIP SOCIATY”……..(Really fraud and myths I have written about earlier on this site)…..See “Debunked Myths of 2007”.
It is estimated that 8 - 10 Million Americans owe more than their home is worth today, as the […]

April 4th, 2008

US Housing Market and Credit Crisis


 “The crisis from which we are now suffering is also the outcome of a credit expansion. The present crisis is the unavoidable sequel to a boom. Such a crisis necessarily follows every boom generated by the attempt to reduce the ‘natural rate of interest.’” - Analyst XDo you have a troubled friend or relative whose […]

March 30th, 2008

Is the US Housing Market Bottoming?


 

Housing - Finding the Elusive Bottom
Where is the Value in Housing?
Bottom Line? There is no Bottom in Sight
The Real ARMs Race

Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home sales since the housing market started to decline last year. I was in my car […]

March 28th, 2008

US Federal Reserve has Begun Buying Mortgage Backed Securities


The lighting strike in the markets that I looked for in last week’s edition did indeed occur across many sectors. It was a belly button moment for many as Commodities, Currencies, Stocks and Interest Rates were rocked midweek and I was forced look around to make sure that “nothing had changed”. The mainstream […]

March 15th, 2008

US Fed Money Printing to Solve Banking Crisis = Stagflation


It doesn’t matter what newspaper you picked up. I doesn’t matter what TV show you watched. Records fell like no time in recent history with perhaps the exception of Carl Lewis running loose at the Olympics in his heyday.
I wonder how much his Gold medals are worth now?
$1.55 on the Euro, 100 on […]

March 7th, 2008

US Mortgage and Housing Markets at Critical Crossroad


Mike Larson writes: The most amazing thing about the housing and mortgage market crunch is that it has unfolded in the context of a decent employment backdrop and a growing economy.Home sales collapsed … inventories ballooned … prices started dropping … and mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures exploded.
All this DESPITE the fact the unemployment rate […]

March 5th, 2008

Real Estate and Credit Bubble Deflation: Anatomy of a Murder


“And there should be no doubt about who is really responsible for the subprime woes. The investment banks employ some of the country’s “best and brightest” — sharp guys who have studied at some of our finest colleges and universities. Does anyone really believe that a Harvard MBA — who understands all the fine-points of […]

March 5th, 2008

Real Estate and Credit Bubble Deflation: Anatomy of a Murder


“And there should be no doubt about who is really responsible for the subprime woes. The investment banks employ some of the country’s “best and brightest” — sharp guys who have studied at some of our finest colleges and universities. Does anyone really believe that a Harvard MBA — who understands all the fine-points of […]

February 27th, 2008

US Home Foreclosures Surge by 90%- Market Hit by ARM Resets


Martin here with two news items I want to bring to your immediate attention.
First and foremost, talk on Wall Street yesterday that the housing market “may be bottoming” is a bunch of hooey.
The reality is that bank seizures of U.S. homes just surged 90% in January compared to a year ago.
The main reason: Homeowners failed […]

February 24th, 2008

Proposals to Help Depreciating US Housing Market


Being “upside down” is the term for when a borrower owes more on a car than the car is worth. Cars have always been a depreciating asset, but real estate has not been viewed in the same way. That is about to change.

Today’s New York Times describes how falling home prices are affecting […]

February 15th, 2008

What the US Government Should Do About the US Housing Crash


Mike Larson writes: I told you it was coming. And there it was yesterday — summarized perfectly in the second headline of the Wall Street Journal’s website: “Worried Bankers Seek to Shift Risk to Uncle Sam.”The gist of the story?

“The banking industry, struggling to contain the fallout from the mortgage debacle, is urgently […]

February 14th, 2008

Sell Your Real Estate Immediately! - Asset Price Deflation Crash!


“I always felt very secure and very safe with real estate. Real estate always appreciates.” ~ Ivana TrumpBefore we begin our next hair-raiser, I notice a lot of people scratching their heads as global stock markets decline in the face of a “strong global economy.” What you are seeing is the “pricing in” of approximately […]