The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead .
The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.

Data compiled by Lombard Street Research shows that the M3 ”broad […]

In this weekend’s Thoughts from the Frontlines, I quoted from part of a very thoughtful, right-on-target analysis by David A. Rosenberg entitled “The Elusive Bottom.” Over the weekend, I decided that you should read the whole piece, as Rosenberg makes some very solid points about how the markets and the economy may play out over […]

Amid signs of economic slowing, the oil decline continues to garner the headlines. Not only is the US economy in a funk, but also Europe is beginning to show signs of slowing, as is Hong Kong – all the more reason to sell energy, as less will be needed in a global economy producing less. […]

Confusion reigns supreme as markets correct, in predictable manner, allowing the Main stream financial press, G7 central banks and poorly prepared investors dream of the days when the financial wind was at their backs, rather then brutally in their faces. Markets are moving in a violently countertrend manner allowing people and investors with short term […]

Almost exactly a year after the advent of the credit debacle, the term “credit crunch” squeezed into Britain’s Chambers dictionary, defined as “a sudden and drastic reduction in the availability of credit”.
Fittingly, the past week witnessed market participants focusing anew on deteriorating global growth prospects, arguing that slower growth and belt-tightening times could reduce […]

BusinessWeek is Bracing for Inflation . Let’s take a look at an article written by John K. Castle, CEO of Castle Harlan, a New York private equity firm.
Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009.
The relative price stability of […]

The US Dollar ended the week with a sharp rally that confirmed the recent breakout and the base building that began following the March 2008 low of 70.70, analysis at the time suggested that the Dollar was heavily oversold and projected a target towards $78, which is now in reach following the USD Index close […]

A Mid-Year Correction
Whatever Happened to Decoupling?
The UK Starts to Slow
A Recession by Any Other Name
What’s a Central Banker to Do?

The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. […]

Doubling down on bad bets is taking place on the public pension level. It appears that they believe the worst is over and are willing to send good money after bad. What seems to be happening is a scramble to make up for the poor performance of these funds in the last 12 months. […]

Jennifer Yousfi writes: The Eurozone economy recorded its first decline in more than a decade as slowdowns in the European Union’s largest economies dragged on gross domestic product (GDP).
The Eurozone economy, which covers the 15 nations that share the euro currency, contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, as a 0.5% decline in Germany and […]

Mike Larson writes: Last week, I gave you several real-world examples of lenders who were refusing to take the Federal Reserve’s “bait.”
A quick recap: The Fed has been driving the cost of money down in an effort to spur more lending. But many banks have instead reduced their exposure to various business lines — […]

The global economy is slowing rapidly. Let’s take a look at some striking examples.
Germany, France, Spain, Italy
Bloomberg is reporting German, French Economies Shrink as Spending, Investment Falter .

Germany and France, the euro area’s two largest economies, contracted in the second quarter as faltering sales undermined investment by companies and soaring […]

It is hard to find much positive regarding the gold trade lately. The attacks have been multi-faceted during the weak late summer season. So resort to something of value: THE TRUTH. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “The greatest homage one can pay to the truth is to tell it.” When the US financial […]

The Bank of England’s in depth 48 page quarterly inflation report published yesterday concludes with the forecast for UK CPI inflation to be at 2% in 2 years time. Since the Bank of England first adopted the 2% CPI inflation target back in 2003, the Bank has perpetually made the same forecast for 2% CPI […]

Minyan Peter was back posting on Minyanville today after a 3 week hiatus. Peter is a former treasurer for a large Midwest bank and one of the brightest minds you can find anywhere. From Peter:
I am finally back from three weeks away from the markets and would offer two quick thoughts from Europe.
First, […]

John Hussman had some interesting comments on Fannie Mae’s last earnings statement in Nervous Bunny .
With regard to Fannie Mae’s report, the most interesting figure wasn’t the reported $2.3 billion loss, but rather the much larger deterioration in the reported fair value of Fannie’s balance sheet. We can observe what’s going on by comparing […]

You Can Stiff Some Of The People Some Of The Time - But, you can’t stiff all the people all of the time. To what do we refer? Answer: The likelihood that once the Beijing Olympics are over, because increasing defaults of US corporate paper / agency debt leave a worsening bad taste on foreigner’s […]

Inflation data for July CPI inflation came in at a truly shocking rate of 4.4%, up 0.6% on June and well beyond our expectations for CPI inflation of 4.1% with the upper worse case scenario of inflation of 4.3%. Whilst at the same time the more recognised RPI measure equally rose to a shocking 5% […]

China is all the rage for the next few weeks as the Olympics are going on. Many are calling this China’s time to showcase itself to the world. I have a lot of friends and analysts who are big China bulls, believing that the next few years will see continued high growth in China, although […]

David, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist, says the US Remains Firmly In Recession .
Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg, the first economist from a major bank to declare a US recession was underway back in early January, argues that recent unemployment figures show yet more evidence that the US economy is a deep recession. […]

Mike Larson writes: It’s no secret what the Federal Reserve — as well as Congress and the Bush administration — want. They want banks to open their wallets. They want lenders to keep the credit flowing. They want firms of all stripes to take the Fed’s cheap money and DO something with it — make […]

Jack Crooks writes: Yesterday, the dollar rallied hard against the euro. And today I want to tell you what I think is happening. Let’s start with a question …
What happened to decoupling, the idea that other economies were immune to weakness in the U.S.?
Well, it seems as though the subprime fiasco has created […]

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) Lost a record £691mln during the first six months of 2008 set against a profit of £5 billion for the same period last year, as the bank continued to write down the value of assets in the face of mounting bad debts as a consequences of exposure to the […]

The U.S. Government has brutally mismanaged the country. Sadly neither candidate is willing to take a stand on fiscal prudence. I asked Senator to Obama to take a stand, and to pick someone fiscally prudent as his Vice President in in my Open Letter To Obama .
I did receive a response, but only to […]

The first of the Euro-zone’s big economies reported preliminary Q2 GDP data today — and the picture was not a pretty one. Italy’s GDP contracted 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, and posted zero growth on the year.

That Italy’s economy is stalling out is no surprise - already one of the weaker economies in the 15-nation […]

Bloomberg is reporting Fannie Mae, Battling Losses, to End Alt-A Mortgages .
Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage- finance company, will stop buying or guaranteeing Alt-A home loans, such as those that require little or no documentation of borrower incomes or assets, by yearend.
The company announced the changes when reporting its fourth straight quarterly […]

The crashing UK housing market is heading for a further deep freeze following speculation that the Chancellor, Alistair Darling is about to suspend the Stamp Duty tax charged on house purchases in an attempt to stabalise the housing market. The few buyers that are in a position to proceed with home purchases are […]